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El Niño Field Notes: season trackers

El Niño brings the weather. The land decides the damage.

These interactive crop trackers follow this season’s El Niño through the growing calendar of key commodities, one region at a time: what has already happened, what to watch next, and where the impact lands on volume, quality, and logistics. Each one compares this season with six past very strong El Niño years and is refreshed monthly.

Track the crops

Follow El Niño through the season, crop by crop

RegionVarginha, South Minas, Brazil
NowFlowering
Next to watchFruit sets, Nov to Dec
Updated19 Oct 2026

Arabica coffee – Varginha, South Minas (Brazil)

2026/27 season: when should we look closely, and why?

Past very strong El Niño years compared: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, 2023/24. Weather observed up to 13 Oct 2026, forecasts after that. Updated 19 Oct 2026.

Business impact
Sep 26
Oct 26
Nov 26
Dec 26
Jan 27
Feb 27
Mar 27
Apr 27
May 27
Jun 27
Jul 27
Aug 27
Today
Watch closelyKeep an eye onNo concern so farToo early to tellImpact point: when the effect on volume, quality or logistics is locked in

Flowering

Sep–Oct

No concern so far

Business impactVolume

Decision window is open now. Impact is locked in by the end of Oct 2026.

Sets the potential size of the 2027 harvest.

How Picterra helps

Monthly outlook and alerts

Nothing to act on yet. An alert tells you if this changes.

What happens
Trees bloom after the first rains of the wet season.
So far this season
much wetter than usual (about 2.4× normal rain), warmer than usual (about +0.3 °C). 414 mm of rain (normally 168 mm); longest dry spell 4 days (normally 13); 2 unusually hot days (normally 4).
Past strong El Niños (6 years)
warmer than usual in 4 of 6 years (typically +0.6 °C); wetter than usual in 6 of 6 years (typically +32% rain).

See the full season

Unlock every El Niño Field Notes tracker: stage-by-stage detail, the temperature and rain outlook against past El Niño years, and what each stage means for volume, quality, and logistics. One sign-up covers them all, including new trackers as we add them.


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RegionBuôn Ma Thuột, Đắk Lắk, Vietnam
NowHarvest and drying
Next to watchIrrigation and flowering, Mid Jan to Apr
Updated19 Oct 2026

Robusta coffee – Buôn Ma Thuột, Đắk Lắk (Vietnam)

2026/27 season: when should we look closely, and why?

Past very strong El Niño years compared: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, 2023/24. Weather observed up to 13 Oct 2026, forecasts after that. Updated 19 Oct 2026.

Robusta
Business impact
Nov 26
Dec 26
Jan 27
Feb 27
Mar 27
Apr 27
May 27
Jun 27
Jul 27
Aug 27
Sep 27
Happened – check impactWatch closelyKeep an eye onNo concern so farToo early to tellImpact point: when the effect on volume, quality or logistics is locked in

Irrigation & flowering

Feb 27 – Apr 27

Watch closely: heat and water stress

Business impactVolumeNext crop

Impact is locked in by the end of Apr 2027.

Sets the size of the 2027/28 crop. Short water means fewer irrigation rounds and weak or uneven flowering; heat dries out the flowers.

How Picterra helps

Weekly forecasts and daily alerts

Track this risk plot by plot through the decision window, with alerts on the thresholds that matter at this stage. A yield outlook shows what this could mean for your volumes.

What happens
Farmers irrigate several times to trigger the bloom of the 2027/28 crop (sometimes into early May, depending on the rains).
This year's forecast (Feb–Apr, seasonal forecast)
much warmer than usual (about +2.6 °C), nearly all forecast runs agree; rain close to normal, forecast runs are split; more water stress than usual (about 56 mm more deficit), most forecast runs agree.
Past strong El Niños (6 years)
warmer than usual in 6 of 6 years (typically +0.6 °C); drier than usual in 6 of 6 years (typically -50% rain); fewer rainy days than usual (typically -57%); more water stress in 6 of 6 years (typically 68 mm more deficit).

See the full season

Unlock every El Niño Field Notes tracker: stage-by-stage detail, the temperature and rain outlook against past El Niño years, and what each stage means for volume, quality, and logistics. One sign-up covers them all, including new trackers as we add them.


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Region

Soubré, Nawa region, Côte d’Ivoire

Now

Main harvest in wet weather

Next to watch

Heat as the mid-crop fills its beans, Feb to Mar

Updated

19 Oct 2026

Cocoa – Soubré, Nawa region (Côte d'Ivoire)

2026/27 season: when should we look closely, and why?

Past very strong El Niño years compared: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, 2023/24. Weather observed up to 13 Oct 2026, forecasts after that. Updated 19 Oct 2026.

So far (7 months), this season looks most like 2023/24 among the past strong El Niño years. One past year is a talking point, not a forecast.

Main crop
Mid-crop
Impact, main crop
Impact, mid-crop
Apr 26
May 26
Jun 26
Jul 26
Aug 26
Sep 26
Oct 26
Nov 26
Dec 26
Jan 27
Feb 27
Mar 27
Apr 27
May 27
Jun 27
Today
Happened – check impactWatch closelyKeep an eye onNo concern so farToo early to tellImpact point: when the effect on volume, quality or logistics is locked in

Main harvest & drying

Main crop · Oct 26 – Jan 27

Keep an eye on: excess rain

Business impactVolumeQualityLogistics & timing

Decision window is open now. Impact is locked in by the end of Jan 2027.

Extra rain and cloud stop beans drying: mould, high free fatty acids, rejected or discounted lots, black pod on remaining pods, and blocked roads slow arrivals at port.

How Picterra helps

Monthly outlook and alerts

Follow how this risk develops and get an alert when it crosses the thresholds you set. A yield outlook shows what this could mean for your volumes.

What happens
Peak harvest; beans are fermented and sun-dried to ~7–8% moisture.
So far (01 Oct–03 Nov, observed + 16-day forecast)
wetter than usual (about +52% rain), warmer than usual (about +0.5 °C); 235 mm of rain (normally 146 mm); 17 rainy days (normally 11); longest wet spell 6 days (normally 3 days).
Still to come (Nov–Jan, seasonal forecast)
warmer than usual (about +1.4 °C), nearly all forecast runs agree; drier than usual (about -21% rain), most forecast runs agree.
Past strong El Niños (6 years)
temperatures close to normal (3 of 6 years slightly warmer); rain close to normal (2 of 6 years slightly wetter).

See the full season

Unlock every El Niño Field Notes tracker: stage-by-stage detail, the temperature and rain outlook against past El Niño years, and what each stage means for volume, quality, and logistics. One sign-up covers them all, including new trackers as we add them.


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RegionKasungu, Central Region, Malawi
NowNursery & rain onset
Next to watchTransplanting, Mid Nov to Dec
Updated19 Oct 2026

Burley tobacco – Kasungu, Central Region (Malawi)

2026/27 season: when should we look closely, and why?

Past very strong El Niño years compared: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, 2023/24. Weather observed up to 13 Oct 2026, forecasts after that. Updated 19 Oct 2026.

Burley
Business impact
Oct 26
Nov 26
Dec 26
Jan 27
Feb 27
Mar 27
Apr 27
May 27
Jun 27
Today
Happened – check impactWatch closelyKeep an eye onNo concern so farToo early to tellImpact point: when the effect on volume, quality or logistics is locked in

Nursery & rain onset

Oct 26 – Nov 26

Keep an eye on: heat

Business impactVolumeLogistics & timing

Decision window is open now. Impact is locked in by the end of Nov 2026.

A late rain onset or heat keeps seedlings too long in the nursery: late, uneven transplanting and a shorter season for the 2026/27 crop.

How Picterra helps

Monthly outlook and alerts

Follow how this risk develops and get an alert when it crosses the thresholds you set. A yield outlook shows what this could mean for your volumes.

What happens
Seedlings grow in watered nurseries while fields are prepared for the first rains.
So far (01 Oct–03 Nov, observed + 16-day forecast)
much wetter than usual (about 2.3× normal rain), warmer than usual (about +0.8 °C); 22 mm of rain (normally 6 mm); longest dry spell 32 days (normally 34 days); 7 unusually hot days (normally 2).
Still to come (Nov–Nov, seasonal forecast)
colder than usual (about -0.3 °C), forecast runs are split; much wetter than usual (about 2.8× normal rain), nearly all forecast runs agree.
Past strong El Niños (6 years)
colder than usual in 4 of 6 years (typically -0.6 °C); wetter than usual in 4 of 6 years (typically +34% rain); more rainy days than usual (typically +54%).

See the full season

Unlock every El Niño Field Notes tracker: stage-by-stage detail, the temperature and rain outlook against past El Niño years, and what each stage means for volume, quality, and logistics. One sign-up covers them all, including new trackers as we add them.


Unlock all trackers
RegionSanta Cruz do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
NowGrowth and topping
Next to watchHarvest and curing, Nov to Feb
Updated19 Oct 2026

Tobacco (Virginia) – Santa Cruz do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil)

2026/27 season: when should we look closely, and why?

Past very strong El Niño years compared: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, 2023/24. Weather observed up to 13 Oct 2026, forecasts after that. Updated 19 Oct 2026.

So far (4 months), this season looks most like 1972/73 among the past strong El Niño years. One past year is a talking point, not a forecast.

Field work
Plant development
Impact, field work
Impact, plant development
Jul 26
Aug 26
Sep 26
Oct 26
Nov 26
Dec 26
Jan 27
Feb 27
Mar 27
Apr 27
Today
Happened – check impactWatch closelyKeep an eye onNo concern so farToo early to tellImpact point: when the effect on volume, quality or logistics is locked in

Growth & topping

Plant development · Sep 26 – Nov 26

Watch closely: excess rain

Business impactVolumeQuality

Decision window is open now. Impact is locked in by the end of Nov 2026.

Persistent rain washes out fertiliser and favours root and leaf diseases: lighter leaves, lower weight and quality. Hail can destroy fields in minutes.

How Picterra helps

Weekly forecasts and daily alerts

Track this risk plot by plot through the decision window, with alerts on the thresholds that matter at this stage. A yield outlook shows what this could mean for your volumes.

What happens
Plants grow fast; flower heads are removed (topping) so the leaves fill out.
So far (01 Sep–03 Nov, observed + 16-day forecast)
wetter than usual (about +43% rain), colder than usual (about -0.9 °C); 545 mm of rain (normally 366 mm); 19 rainy days (normally 18); longest wet spell 3 days (normally 3 days).
Still to come (Nov–Nov, seasonal forecast)
warmer than usual (about +0.3 °C), forecast runs are split; much wetter than usual (about 1.8× normal rain), most forecast runs agree.
Past strong El Niños (6 years)
temperatures close to normal (1 of 6 years slightly warmer); wetter than usual in 6 of 6 years (typically +28% rain).

See the full season

Unlock every El Niño Field Notes tracker: stage-by-stage detail, the temperature and rain outlook against past El Niño years, and what each stage means for volume, quality, and logistics. One sign-up covers them all, including new trackers as we add them.


Unlock all trackers

Turn crop monitoring into continuous production intelligence.

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Frequently asked questions

Each tracker follows one crop in one growing region through the 2026/27 season, stage by stage. It shows what this El Niño has already done, what to watch next, and when the impact on volume, quality, and logistics is locked in. A new tracker launches each week alongside our El Niño Field Notes on LinkedIn.

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